Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Within the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.